Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model