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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BUF 20 for 51 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model