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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

BUF
17.5%
BAL
82.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.059 vs Nathan Peterman (BUF) -0.714 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 15
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 11 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

Ray-Ray McCloud WR Out Knee
Julian Stanford LB Questionable Nose

BAL

Willie Henry DT Out Abdomen
Hayden Hurst TE Out Foot
Kenny Young LB Questionable Knee
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 3
–
BAL 47

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:49 TD BAL (8:49) 34-A.Collins up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 01:37 TD BAL (1:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 13-J.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 13
  • Q2 13:18 FG BAL (13:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BUF 0 – BAL 17
  • Q2 04:20 FG BAL (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BUF 0 – BAL 20
  • Q2 00:17 TD BAL (:17) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 26
  • Q3 12:33 TD BAL (12:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 83-W.Snead for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 32
  • Q3 11:26 TD BAL (11:26) 37-J.Allen right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – BAL 39
  • Q3 02:42 FG BUF (2:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine, Defensive Offside, declined. BUF 3 – BAL 40
  • Q4 03:55 TD BAL (3:55) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – BAL 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:25) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 25 for -1 yards (42-P.DiMarco).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-J.Kerley to BUF 15 for 4 yards (54-T.Bowser, 36-C.Clark).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:43) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BAL 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 34 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:21) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BUF 20 for 51 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (13:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 50 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 30 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%

    (8:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 88%

    (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:01) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 15.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:57) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 27, and recovers at BUF 14. 9-C.Bojorquez to BUF 14 for no gain (54-T.Bowser).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:10) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-J.Kerley to BUF 37 for 6 yards (26-M.Canady).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 92%

    (2:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 45-M.Murphy to BUF 18 for 9 yards (26-M.Canady).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:05) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to BAL 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 11 for no gain (26-T.Jones).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 17%

    (3:02) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-J.Grant.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:36) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to BUF 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.