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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model