Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:05) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-36-C.Clark.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model