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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.75 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP