Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 40

(10:10) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model