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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 40 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to BUF 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-J.Kerley to BUF 37 for 6 yards (26-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model