Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

(6:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to BUF 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-J.Kerley to BUF 15 for 4 yards (54-T.Bowser, 36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model