Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(5:43) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to BAL 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-J.Grant to BAL 34 for 3 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.52 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model