Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 10

(9:05) 6-J.Scott punts 58 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at GB 43 for 42 yards (43-H.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.81 EP
76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model