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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 20:20 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
35.0%
GB
65.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.176 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.123 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CHI

DeAndre Houston-Carson S Out Forearm
Daniel Brown TE Doubtful Shoulder

GB

Josh Jones S Out Ankle
Trevor Davis WR Doubtful Hamstring
Oren Burks LB Questionable Shoulder
James Crawford LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 23
–
GB 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:16 TD CHI (7:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG CHI (15:00) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:50 TD CHI (:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 52-K.Mack [95-R.Robertson-Harris] at GB 27. 52-K.Mack for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – GB 0
  • Q3 09:18 FG CHI (9:18) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 20 – GB 0
  • Q3 03:41 FG GB (3:41) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. CHI 20 – GB 3
  • Q4 14:06 TD GB (14:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 81-G.Allison for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – GB 9
  • Q4 09:10 TD GB (9:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-R.Robertson-Harris]. CHI 20 – GB 16
  • Q4 02:42 FG CHI (2:42) 1-C.Parkey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 23 – GB 17
  • Q4 02:29 TD GB (2:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 23 – GB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:22) 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CHI 24, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-15-J.Bellamy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:25) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to CHI 29, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 32 for 3 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:56) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-R.Cobb to GB 35 for 17 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:05) 6-J.Scott punts 58 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at GB 43 for 42 yards (43-H.Bradley).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 57%

    (6:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at GB 43 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 46. 10-M.Trubisky to GB 46 for no gain (53-N.Perry).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (9:18) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (3:41) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 94%

    (2:42) 1-C.Parkey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (53-N.Perry). FUMBLES (53-N.Perry) [53-N.Perry], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at CHI 39. 97-K.Clark to CHI 39 for no gain (75-K.Long).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 43%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.