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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 37

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at GB 43 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at GB 46. 10-M.Trubisky to GB 46 for no gain (53-N.Perry).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.49 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model