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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 20 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP