Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 54

Chicago Bears 23 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (53-N.Perry). FUMBLES (53-N.Perry) [53-N.Perry], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at CHI 39. 97-K.Clark to CHI 39 for no gain (75-K.Long).

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP