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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 8

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model