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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model