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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CIN
37.7%
IND
62.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Andrew Luck (IND) +0.145 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) -0.027 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CIN

Cody Core WR Doubtful Back

IND

Denzelle Good T Out Knee
Anthony Castonzo T Questionable Hamstring
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 34
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 FG CIN (8:25) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 01:27 FG IND (1:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. CIN 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 12:09 TD IND (12:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – IND 9
  • Q2 03:06 FG IND (3:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. CIN 3 – IND 13
  • Q2 01:48 TD CIN (1:48) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 15-J.Ross for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG IND (:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. CIN 10 – IND 16
  • Q3 08:17 TD IND (8:17) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 10 – IND 22
  • Q3 04:18 TD CIN (4:18) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – IND 23
  • Q4 11:10 TD CIN (11:10) 74-J.Fisher and 94-S.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – IND 23
  • Q4 04:01 FG CIN (4:01) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 27 – IND 23
  • Q4 00:40 TD CIN (:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to CIN 15 for 15 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). FUMBLES (42-C.Fejedelem), RECOVERED by CIN-42-C.Fejedelem at CIN 17. 42-C.Fejedelem for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 87%

    (8:25) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (1:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:34) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for no gain (29-T.McRae).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (3:06) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:43) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to CIN 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for -1 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 28-C.Milton).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 18 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:42) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to IND 25, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN. PENALTY on CIN-40-B.Wilson, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at IND 25.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 64%

    (:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:01) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (4:01) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.