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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.46 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model