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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 24

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 4-R.Bullock 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model