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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 26

New York Giants 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model