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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

JAX
60.0%
NYG
40.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 24
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

JAX

Cody Davis S Questionable Rib

NYG

Tae Davis LB Out Hamstring
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
NYG 15

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 FG JAX (10:17) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 00:26 FG NYG (:26) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. JAX 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 07:22 FG JAX (7:22) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 02:47 TD JAX (2:47) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – NYG 3
  • Q2 00:07 FG NYG (:07) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. JAX 13 – NYG 6
  • Q3 09:23 FG NYG (9:23) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. JAX 13 – NYG 9
  • Q4 11:35 TD JAX (11:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack (95-A.Jones) at NYG 32. 44-M.Jack for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – NYG 9
  • Q4 10:51 TD NYG (10:51) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – NYG 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 89%

    (10:17) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to JAX 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (:26) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 20 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%

    (7:22) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to JAX 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 82%

    (9:23) 2-A.Rosas 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to JAX 46, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 56%

    (6:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to JAX 37 for 1 yard (39-T.Gipson; 55-L.McCray).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (5:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-41-T.Herndon.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to JAX 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for -4 yards (35-C.Riley). PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%

    (1:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 29 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to NYG 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-K.Clay.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to NYG 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay to NYG 26 for -1 yards (17-D.Chark).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to JAX 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 25 for 10 yards (72-K.Wynn).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to NYG 14, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay pushed ob at NYG 19 for 5 yards (81-N.Paul).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.Shepard (25-D.Hayden).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:54) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NYG 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-K.Clay MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Payne at NYG 21. 52-D.Payne to NYG 21 for no gain (15-K.Clay).