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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 19 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to JAX 46, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model