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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 38

New York Giants 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to JAX 37 for 1 yard (39-T.Gipson; 55-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.52 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model