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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-41-T.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model