Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 83

New York Giants 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

(7:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to JAX 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.26 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model