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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Giants 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 2-A.Rosas 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth +0.74 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model