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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-39-Tr. Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model