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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

KC
33.7%
LAC
66.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.233 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.213 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
LAC 29
Projected margin: LAC by 7 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel

LAC

Joey Bosa DE Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 38
–
LAC 28

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:24 TD KC (13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 09:24 FG LAC (9:24) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. KC 7 – LAC 3
  • Q1 06:50 TD KC (6:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Mebane]. KC 13 – LAC 3
  • Q1 00:25 FG LAC (:25) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. KC 14 – LAC 6
  • Q2 07:54 TD LAC (7:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Ford]. KC 14 – LAC 12
  • Q2 02:04 FG KC (2:04) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – LAC 12
  • Q3 09:29 TD KC (9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 13-D.Thomas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LAC 12
  • Q3 00:55 TD KC (:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 42-A.Sherman for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – LAC 12
  • Q4 12:09 TD LAC (12:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 31 – LAC 18
  • Q4 09:47 TD KC (9:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 37 – LAC 20
  • Q4 05:08 TD LAC (5:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 16-Ty.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 38 – LAC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 80%

    (9:24) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 61%

    (5:12) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis punts 24 yards to KC 12, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-47-M.Windt.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Jones.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 89%

    (:25) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (14:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-39-Tr. Smith.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 79%

    (2:04) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 63 yards to KC 16, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 20 for 4 yards. PENALTY on KC-19-M.Kemp, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LAC 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-J.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 6. 89-J.Jones to LAC 6 for no gain (13-D.Thomas). FUMBLES (13-D.Thomas), RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at LAC 2.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 80%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at KC 4 for 23 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to LAC 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 14 for -1 yards (19-M.Kemp).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%

    (1:11) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC.