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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 8-D.Kaser punts 57 yards to KC 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP