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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.05 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP