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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at KC 4 for 23 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.12 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model