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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to LAC 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 14 for -1 yards (19-M.Kemp).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model