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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model