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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis punts 24 yards to KC 12, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-47-M.Windt.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.75 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP