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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 84

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model