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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 37

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model