4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Monday 2018-09-10 · 19:10 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NYJ
33.8%
DET
66.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
DET 25
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYJ

Josh Martin LB Out Concussion
Marcus Maye S Doubtful Foot
Jermaine Kearse WR Doubtful Abdomen

DET

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 48
–
DET 17

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:53 TD DET (14:53) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 29-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 28-Q.Diggs at NYJ 37. 28-Q.Diggs for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – DET 6
  • Q1 04:26 TD NYJ (4:26) (Shotgun) 20-I.Crowell up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DET 7
  • Q2 15:00 FG NYJ (15:00) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 10 – DET 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:15 FG DET (:15) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. NYJ 17 – DET 10
  • Q3 13:17 TD DET (13:17) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – DET 16
  • Q3 09:44 TD NYJ (9:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – DET 17
  • Q3 08:16 TD NYJ (8:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 25-T.Riddick INTERCEPTED by 58-D.Lee [96-H.Anderson] at DET 36. 58-D.Lee for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 30 – DET 17
  • Q3 07:20 TD NYJ (7:20) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NYJ 37 – DET 17
  • Q3 05:19 FG NYJ (5:19) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 41 – DET 17
  • Q3 01:04 TD NYJ (1:04) 20-I.Crowell right end for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 47 – DET 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (8:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:09) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NYJ 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to DET 32 for 43 yards (6-S.Martin, 32-T.Wilson).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (15:00) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (9:28) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 56%

    (5:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to DET 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:26) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYJ 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to DET 49 for 16 yards (32-T.Wilson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:15) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:20) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYJ 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (5:19) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (1:51) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (10:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 11-M.Jones.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to DET 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 68%

    (6:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Cassel pass short right intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Adams at NYJ 22. 33-J.Adams to DET 40 for 38 yards (68-T.Decker).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

    (4:19) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 40-T.Cannon ran ob at DET 26 for 6 yards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (2:35) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 16-T.Pryor pushed ob at DET 2 for 17 yards (24-N.Lawson).