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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 40

New York Jets 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 34 yards to DET 6, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model