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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 80

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYJ 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to DET 49 for 16 yards (32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model