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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 14

New York Jets 38 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model