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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 26

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Jets 41

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model