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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 9

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Jets 48

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 11-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model