Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 50

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(8:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.42 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP

KICK -1.59 EP

32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model