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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 83

New York Jets 48 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to DET 45, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP