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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 17

New York Jets 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model