4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to DEN 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 24-A.Jones to DEN 37 for 9 yards (36-A.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model