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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-09-09 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

SEA
37.0%
DEN
63.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (DEN): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SEA 20
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SEA

D.J. Fluker G Out Hamstring
K.J. Wright LB Out Knee
Dontae Johnson CB Questionable Hip

DEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:10 TD SEA (9:10) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-W.Dissly for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 06:18 TD DEN (6:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-P.Lindsay for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 14:03 FG SEA (14:03) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – DEN 7
  • Q2 10:40 TD DEN (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 10 – DEN 13
  • Q2 05:29 FG DEN (5:29) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. SEA 10 – DEN 17
  • Q3 06:09 TD SEA (6:09) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 15-B.Marshall for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – DEN 17
  • Q3 02:06 FG DEN (2:06) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King. SEA 17 – DEN 20
  • Q4 14:55 TD SEA (14:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – DEN 20
  • Q4 11:18 TD DEN (11:18) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 88-De.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SEA 24 – DEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:23) 1-M.King punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-81-T.Patrick.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to DEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 24-A.Jones to DEN 44 for 24 yards (58-A.Calitro). PENALTY on DEN-40-K.Bierria, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to DEN 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-23-N.Thorpe.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (:56) 1-M.King punts 52 yards to SEA 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

    (14:03) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to DEN 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 24-A.Jones to DEN 37 for 9 yards (36-A.King).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 70%

    (5:29) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (1:56) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 69 yards to DEN 6, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:06) 1-M.King punts 53 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 9 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:51) 1-M.King punts 41 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for -2 yards (30-P.Lindsay).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%

    (2:06) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to DEN 13, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:14) 1-M.King punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 4 yards (81-T.Patrick).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to DEN 19, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 55%

    (1:08) 1-M.King punts 27 yards to SEA 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.