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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 33

Denver Broncos 14 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model