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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 35

Denver Broncos 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-1-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model